Tuesday, October 9, 2018

No. 2 LeBron James and No. 1 Michael Jordan

The LeBron James-Michael Jordan argument tends to break down by age.
Those who grew up watching Jordan play are adamant that MJ is the greatest player ever. Their arguments center around Jordan’s scoring titles, the fact that he won his championships with the team that drafted him and his perfect 6-0 record in the NBA Finals.
Those six years that the Bulls were on top, it seemed as if Jordan never failed.
Those who have grown up watching James play point to LeBron’s overall ability. There has never been a player so great so young who could score, rebound and pass the way LeBron has. They point to the fact that Jordan essentially won with one coach, in one system and always with Scottie Pippen by his side. LeBron has dragged essentially four different teams to NBA Finals and the 2015-2016 Cleveland comeback over Steph Curry’ record-breaking Golden State Warriors.
After looking deeply at both using advanced stats and factoring in how much they won and how they were regarded by the MVP voters of their times, my system concludes that Michael Jordan remains the greatest player ever … for now.
First things first, for those that argue one is clearly better than the other. That’s ridiculous. The margin separating these two is razor thin as we’ll go through.

Second things second, for those that like to add other names to the argument. Well, Kareem is close. Regular-season Wilt Chamberlain could be mentioned in the same conversation. But if you go by the advanced stats, Jordan and James are No. 1 and No. 1A.

First point, let’s look at the number of times Jordan and James have led the league in PER, Win Shares, Box +/- and VORP in the regular season and playoffs.
Advanced stats – who led league most often
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
Regular Season
Playoffs
Kareem Abdul-Jabbor
9
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7
Wilt Chamberlain
8
Michael Jordan
6
Michael Jordan
7
Wilt Chamberlain
6
LeBron James
6
LeBron James
5
Win Shares
Regular Season
Playoffs
Michael Jordan
9
LeBron James
7
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
9
Michael Jordan
7
Wilt Chamberlain
8
Julius Erving
5
LeBron James
5
Bill Russell
5
Box +/-
Regular Season
Playoffs
LeBron James
8
LeBron James
7
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
6
Michael Jordan
6
David Robinson
6
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3
Jordan, Bird, Erving
5
Bird, Magic
3
Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)
Regular Season
Playoffs
LeBron James
9
LeBron James
10
Michael Jordan
7
Michael Jordan
6
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
6
Larry Bird
5
Erving, Bird
4
Julius Erving
3

Kareem’s regular-season record would look better if statisticians could calculate Box +/- and VORP the first four years of his career. His playoff advanced stats, particularly in Win Shares and VORP, don’t measure up to Jordan and James. Those two are top four in every category in both the regular season and playoffs.
In my system, the 300-point level signifies a great season. Several players in my top 100 didn’t even have one 300-point season. There have been only 41 400-point seasons. Jordan and James account for 15 of those seasons. In fact, combined, they have 10 of the 20 greatest seasons in NBA history. Jordan has the No. 1 season in my estimation, but James has three of the top six.
20 Greatest Seasons
Player
Year
Score
Michael Jordan
1990-1991
505.48
LeBron James
2012-2013
494.16
LeBron James
2011-2012
487.95
Wilt Chamberlain
1966-1967
487.52
Michael Jordan
1995-1996
486.78
LeBron James
2008-2009
486.70
Larry Bird
1985-1986
485.96
Shaquille O’Neal
1999-2000
485.48
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1970-1971
484.33
Michael Jordan
1991-1992
474.40
Moses Malone
1982-1983
471.95
Magic Johnson
1986-1987
469.43
Connie Hawkins
1967-1968
461.58
Michael Jordan
1996-1997
458.44
Larry Bird
1983-1984
454.23
Julius Erving
1975-1976
451.01
Michael Jordan
1992-1993
447.93
Tim Duncan
2002-2003
445.70
Michael Jordan
1997-1998
443.92
LeBron James
2009-2010
440.19

The reason that Jordan has the advantage in my system is that he was ever so slightly better at his peak. The best way to look at that is to stack their seasons side-by-side by age.
Jordan-James Breakdown by age
Jordan
James
Year
Age
Points
Year
Age
Points
2003-04
19
95.16
2004-05
20
157.71
1984-85
21
293.84
2005-06
21
343.50
1985-86
22
224.44
2006-07
22
325.93
1986-87
23
306.57
2007-08
23
351.69
1987-88
24
395.79
2008-09
24
486.70
1988-89
25
420.39
2009-10
25
440.19
1989-90
26
421.33
2010-11
26
381.15
1990-91
27
505.48
2011-12
27
487.95
1991-92
28
474.40
2012-13
28
494.16
1992-93
29
447.93
2013-14
29
412.82
2014-15
30
364.04
1994-95
31
265.80
2015-16
31
422.62
1995-96
32
486.78
2016-17
32
357.68
1996-97
33
458.44
2017-18
33
408.36
1997-98
34
443.92
2018-19
34
2001-02
38
103.81
2002-03
39
94.58

As you see, both dominated the NBA at very young ages. Jordan didn’t come to the NBA until he was 21. James started at 19. Both were great, but James was consistently greater until the age of 26. From 26 through 33, Jordan was better five out of eight years. At the age of 30, Jordan was playing baseball. At age 31, he played less than half of a season. He essentially punted those two years. So the only year LeBron was better in their primes in which they both played was when they were 28. That was the middle season of Jordan's first trio of titles and the second of Miami's back-to-back titles for LeBron.

It is because of that prime that Jordan holds the edge over LeBron to this point. Jordan ranks No. 1 and James No. 2 in the 1-year, 5-year and 10-year rankings. Jordan, though, famously retired twice before it stuck. He skipped more than a year and a half in his prime. His score in my system before he retired was 447.93 in 1992-1993 and it was 486.78 the first full year he came back. It’s not a stretch to assume he would have recorded a couple more 400-point seasons.

Then Jordan walked away again after the 1997-1998 season after scoring a 443.92 only to come back again in 2001-2002 at the age of 38. Again, even assuming some age-related decline, he likely would have added three-more more 300-point seasons. If Jordan plays straight through, he likely would have ended up with more than 6,500 career points, which would have put him ahead of Kareem and settled the debate forever.
That’s not what happened and instead Jordan ranks No. 5 in career points. James, who already has put in 15 years in the NBA, shows no signs of slowing down at 34 and has never hinted that he wants to willingly walk away from the NBA. James is less than 850 points away from topping Abdul-Jabbar in career rankings in my system. That’s perhaps just two seasons away and more than likely just three years away. At that point, he’ll move to No. 1 in my top 100.
In reality, that won’t change anyone’s argument. Jordan backers say MJ was better at his peak. LeBron fans tend to look at his body of work. By the time LeBron is done, he’ll likely be the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, be in the top 30 in rebounding and third in assists. That’s a mountain no one may ever climb.
Michael Jordan and LeBron James bio info
Jordan
James
Career
1984-85
Career
2003-2018
Games
1,072
Games
1,143
Points
30.1
Points
27.2
Rebounds
6.2
Rebounds
7.4
Assists
5.3
Assists
7.2
FG Pct.
49.7%
FG Pct.
50.4%
All-Star games
14
All-Star games
14
NBA MVPs
5
NBA MVPs
4
NBA titles
6
NBA titles
3
Playoff seasons
13
Playoff seasons
13
Playoff games
179
Playoff games
239
Points
33.4
Points
28.9
Rebounds
6.4
Rebounds
8.9
Assists
5.7
Assists
7.1
FG Pct.
48.7%
FG Pct.
49.1%
Hall of Fame
2009
Hall of Fame
Top 100 rankings
Jordan
James
Points
Top 100 rank
Points
Top 100 rank
1-year
505.48
1st
494.16
2nd
5-year
2,373.02
1st
2,331.61
2nd
10-year
4,361.02
1st
4,255.65
2nd
Career
5,343.49
5th
5,529.64
3rd
               
Michael Jordan at his peak
1990-1991
Jordan
Top 5
Points
PER
31.6
27.57
Win Shares
20.3
16.45
Box +/-
10.8
8.94
VORP
9.8
7.94
Total Advanced Stats
72.5
60.88
119.08
Playoff PER
32.0
26.10
Win Shares
4.8
3.19
Box +/-
13.8
10.16
VORP
2.8
1.90
Total Advanced Stats
53.4
41.34
129.16
Reg. Season Win %
74.39
74.39
Playoff Win %
88.24
88.24
MVP Voting (75 points)
891/960
69.61
Playoff MVP (25 points)
25.0
25.00
Total Score
505.48
  
LeBron James at his peak
2012-2013
James
Top 5
Points
PER
31.6
26.56
Win Shares
19.3
14.76
Box +/-
11.6
7.17
VORP
9.8
7.20
Total Advanced Stats
72.3
57.02
126.79
Playoff PER
28.1
26.55
Win Shares
5.2
3.05
Box +/-
10.2
7.92
VORP
2.9
1.54
Total Advanced Stats
46.4
39.41
117.72
Reg. Season Win %
80.26
80.26
Playoff Win %
69.57
69.57
MVP Voting (75 points)
1,207/1,210
74.81
Playoff MVP (25 points)
25.0
25.00
Total Score
494.16
Jordan and James’ 10 greatest seasons
Michael Jordan
LeBron James
Year
Points
Year
Points
1990-1991
505.48
2012-2013
494.16
1995-1996
486.78
2011-2012
487.95
1991-1992
474.40
2008-2009
486.70
1996-1997
458.44
2009-2010
440.19
1992-1993
447.93
2015-2016
422.62
1997-1998
443.92
2013-2014
412.82
1989-1990
421.33
2017-2018
408.36
1988-1989
420.39
2010-2011
381.15
1987-1988
395.79
2014-2015
364.04
1986-1987
306.57
2016-2017
357.68
Jordan’s career winning percentage
W
L
Pct.
Regular Season
706
366
65.86%
Playoffs
119
60
66.48%
James’ career winning percentage
W
L
Pct.
Regular Season
761
382
66.58%
Playoffs
151
76
66.52%