Tuesday, September 25, 2018

No. 13 - Kobe Bryant

Every year, around playoff time, when the Michael Jordan-LeBron James GOAT argument heats up on Facebook, I’ll occasionally see someone jump in with a post along these lines.
“LeBron better than Jordan? He’s not even as good as Kobe Bryant.”
I hate to break it to you Kobe fans, if you look at the advanced stats, it’s not particularly close.
Bryant was the member of five NBA title teams and played in seven NBA Finals. He played in 18 all-star games. He won two scoring titles and three times led the NBA in playoff scoring. He won one regular season MVP and got MVP votes in 13 seasons. He won two NBA Finals MVP.

That’s a really good list of positives, but we’re talking about whether Bryant deserves to be in the top 10 all-time.
Here is why he’s on the outside just looking in.
He never led the league in any advanced stat in the regular season. In the playoffs, he led in win shares just once even though he was on five title teams.
He topped 20.0 PER 14 straight years, but he only had three seasons above 25.0. His career PER ranks 24th all-time, below Yao Ming and Neil Johnston, to name a couple.
Bryant had 11 seasons where he topped 10.0 in win shares with a career high of 15.3 in 2005-2006. He played 20 seasons and wracked up 172.7 win shares. That ranks 18th, below Reggie Miller, Charles Barley and John Stockton, among others. Those three didn’t win a single NBA title.
Bryant had seven years where he was top 10 in Box +/-, but he was never higher than fifth. His career +/- of 3.88 ranks 37th. He’s below players such as Alvin Robertson, Joakim Noah and Larry Nance.
In VORP, Bryant was top 10 seven times again with a career best of third in 2007-2008 (behind James and Chris Paul). His career VORP of 72.07 ranks 17th, immediately behind Clyde Drexler and good buddy Shaquille O’Neal.
How can this be? Bryant undoubtedly could score. His 25.0 points per game average is 12th all-time. But he wasn’t a particularly efficient scorer. He shot just 44.7 percent for his career. His best season was just 46.9 percent. He was a 12-time all-defense selection, but he wasn’t a particularly strong rebounder (5.2 per game for his career) or passer (4.7 assists per game). Shooting guards such as Dennis Johnson and Clyde Drexler averaged more assists and George Gervin averaged more rebounds.
The strongest point Bryant fans have in their favor is Kobe’s 5-2 record in the NBA Finals. Kobe, though, was clearly second fiddle to O’Neal in his first three titles. Shaq was the NBA Finals MVP in all three. In the final two, Bryant clearly was the top dog in 2008-2009, his best season in my system. But in 2009-2010, Pau Gasol had higher win shares in the playoffs than Bryant and ranked higher in VORP.
Plus, you should look at the time in between Shaq and Gasol. Shaq left the Lakers after the 2003-2004 season and Gasol didn’t arrive until midway through the 2007-2008 year. In the three years without either big man to clean up his mistakes – which coincidentally include his two scoring titles - the Lakers went 112-101 and 4-8 in the playoffs. These were his prime seasons – 26, 27 and 28.
Bryant clearly was great and great for a long time. He’s the second-best shooting guard of all time. But he’s not in the conversation for GOAT. Not by a long shot.
Kobe Bryant bio info
Career
1996-2016
Games
1,346
Points
25.0
Rebounds
5.2
Assists
4.7
FG Pct.
44.7%
All-Star games
18
NBA MVPs
1
NBA titles
5
Playoff seasons
15
Playoff games
220
Points
25.6
Rebounds
5.1
Assists
4.7
FG Pct.
44.8%
Hall of Fame


Top 100 rankings

Points
Top 100 ranking
1-year
381.66
23rd
5-year
1,768.02
16th
10-year
3,225.04
14th
Career
4,733.11
8th
               
Kobe Bryant at his peak
2008-2009
Bryant
Top 5
Points
PER
24.4
28.35

Win Shares
12.7
16.19
Box +/-
4.5
9.12

VORP
4.9
8.45

Total Advanced Stats
46.5
62.12
74.86
Playoff PER
26.8
29.85

Win Shares
4.7
4.30

Box +/-
7.5
9.60

VORP
2.2
2.18

Total Advanced Stats
41.2
45.93
89.71
Reg. Season Win %
79.27
79.27
Playoff Win %
69.57
69.57
MVP Voting (75 points)
698/1,210
43.26
Playoff MVP (25 points)
25
25.00
Total Score


381.66
               
Bryant’s 10 greatest seasons
2008-2009
381.66
2007-2008
378.38
2009-2010
355.99
2000-2001
340.55
2003-2004
311.43
2001-2002
310.90
2002-2003
299.33
1999-2000
293.97
2005-2006
278.47
2010-2011
274.35

Career winning percentage

W
L
Pct.
Regular Season
836
500
62.57%
Playoffs
129
79
62.02%
                                                                                                                                         

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