Monday, August 6, 2018

No. 58 - Willis Reed

Willis Reed owes his spot in the top 60 to the basketball writers who picked grit over statistics.
Reed won one regular season MVP and two NBA Finals MVP despite having relatively pedestrian statistics – as MVPs go – and it’s these points that pushed him up the rankings.
Let’s look at his greatest season, the 1969-1970 year where the Knicks knocked off the Wilt Chamberlain-Jerry West Lakers. Reed had a 20.1 PER that year, a solid figure for the early 1970s, but it ranked just ninth in the NBA.  Jerry West led the NBA with a 24.6 and Walt Frazier, Reed’s teammate, ranked fifth in the NBA at 21.1. Reed did better in win shares. His 14.6 ranked third, but West again topped the NBA with 15.2 and Frazier was second with 15.0.
West’s Lakers went 46-36, finishing behind Atlanta in the Western Conference – Chamberlain played just 12 regular season games that year - while New York was an NBA-best 60-22. So based on records, you could make an argument Reed was more valuable than West. But if you’re going to pick a Knick, why Reed over Frazier? Reed topped West 498 points to 457 in the MVP voting. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was third at 335, while Frazier was fourth with just 50.
In the playoffs, Abdul-Jabbar had the top PER with a 29.4, while West was next at 21.1. Reed did top the Knicks at 20.1, finishing sixth overall. In terms of playoff win shares, West again topped the NBA with 3.2, while Reed finished fourth at 2.6. He again finished behind Frazier, who had a 2.8.
Reed famously suffered a knee injury during the NBA Finals and took a cortisone shot so he could start Game 7. He scored the first two baskets of the game, but those would be the only two that he would. Instead, it was Frazier’s masterful 36 point, 19 assist game that would power New York over a listless Lakers team. Yet the NBA Finals MVP – and 25 points in my system – went to Reed. Reed finished 24th in my 1-year standings largely because of the 73.19 bonus points for his regular season and finals MVP.
In 1972-1973, Reed was fading badly. He averaged just 11 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, far off his career averages. He did have a strong NBA Finals, again against the Lakers. Reed averaged 16.4 points and 9.2 rebounds in the five-game win over L.A. Those are solid stats, but Frazier led the NBA in playoff win shares and finished fifth in playoff PER. Reed wasn’t in the top 10 in either. Frazier averaged 16.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists in the finals. The difference likely was Reed’s numbers were a step up from the level he played at most of the year, while Frazier’s were a step down.
It's not as if Reed was undeserving of a spot in the top 100. He was a seven-time all-star, two-time champion and had a five-year stretch where he averaged at least 20.8 points and 13.2 rebounds per game. He’s definitely top 100 material, but it was his MVP votes that pushed him ahead of players such as Frazier, Isiah Thomas and Ray Allen.
Willis Reed bio info
Career
1965-1974
Games
650
Points
18.7
Rebounds
12.9
Assists
1.8
FG Pct.
47.6%
All-Star games
7
NBA MVPs
1
NBA Titles
2
Playoff seasons
7
Playoff games
78
Points
17.4
Rebounds
10.3
Assists
1.9
FG Pct.
47.4%
Hall of Fame
1982

Top 100 rankings

Points
Top 100 ranking
1-year
380.49
24th
5-year
1,487.56
39th
10-year
2,108.08
93rd
Career
2,108.08
Not in top 100

Willis Reed at his peak
1969-1970
Reed
Top 5
Points
PER
20.3
24.55

Win Shares
14.6
15.13
Box +/-
NA
NA

VORP
NA
NA

Total Advanced Stats
34.9
39.68
87.96
Playoff PER
20.1
26.03

Win Shares
2.6
2.85

Box +/-
NA
NA

VORP
NA
NA

Total Advanced Stats
22.7
28.88
78.60
Reg. Season Win %
74.07

74.07
Playoff Win %
66.67
66.67
MVP Voting (75 points)
498/775

48.19
Playoff MVP (25 points)
25
25
Total Score


380.49

Reed’s 10 greatest seasons
1969-1970
380.49
1968-1969
327.79
1972-1973
273.11
1970-1971
257.61
1966-1967
248.56
1967-1968
234.16
1973-1974
131.07
1964-1965
96.15
1965-1966
81.16
1971-1972
77.98

Career winning percentage

W
L
Pct.
Regular Season
362
288
55.69%
Playoffs
45
33
57.69%
                                                                                                                                         

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